Coty Keller updated July 27, 2020
It’s great that Charlotte
County is signing on to a compact that acknowledges that climate change is
real and that it will impact us in southwest Florida. We are taking the lead in our region. The bad
news is this agreement has not recognized the need to slow or reverse global
warming. Instead this compact aims only
to adapt to the changing climate by becoming more resilient. Resiliency and adaptation alone will allow
climate change to continue because they ignore the cause of the problem. In the
end, long-term impacts will become unmanageable and catastrophic to our region.
The key to understanding the shortcoming of this compact is to recognize that there are two kinds of action to take to fight global warming: adaptation and mitigation. “Adaptation” is the process of adjusting to a changing climate. “Mitigation,” as defined by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is “human intervention to reduce heat-trapping emissions and/or remove carbon from the atmosphere.” The term mitigation is found several times in the memorandum of agreement that Charlotte count just signed, but it is not used as intended by the IPCC. Nowhere in compact is there a commitment to remove the cause of climate change- which is too much greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Without attacking the cause, the problem will not be solved.
The compact’s approach may make us feel safer as sea levels rise because of promises to elevated buildings and armor our utility infrastructure, for example, or in the case of temperatures rising by adding more insulation to our buildings. But the adaptation/resiliency prescription does nothing to avoid the likelihood of what climate change will bring: about 78 days a year with a heat index above 105 degrees F in Charlotte County by as early as 2036 (See Union of Concerned Scientists Killer Heat in the US). The compact does nothing to keep us from experiencing a boom in algae blooms caused by warming waters and greater runoff from more precipitation. (See Judy Ott’s presentation at the 2020 CHNEP watershed summit).
The local Sun papers say we are moving in the right direction with baby steps, and that is a good thing. But unless more steps come quickly and boldly, we will miss the brief window (10 years) to mitigate effectively. Time is of the essence.
What can/should local governments and regional coalitions do to mitigate climate change? Plenty! And the stage has been set. Florida’s “Peril of Flood” legislation mandated that counties upgrade their comprehensive plans by 2021 to address sea level rise and climate change. Charlotte County was founded in 1921. What a perfect opportunity for the centennial. We could/should develop an “adaptive mitigation” strategy for Charlotte County, one that protects residents from global warming (adaptation, resiliency) while at the same time strives to remove the cause of the problem (mitigation).
The Union of Concerned Scientists (Cooler, Smarter) have analyzed where the various levels of government have the most leverage, and about 1/3 of the problem can be attacked right here. For example, buildings are responsible for perhaps 30% of emissions. And local governments control building codes. Since we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions about 70-100% by 2030 (UN IPPC 2019 Emissions Gap report), building codes should, for example assure that all new buildings, and retrofits are energy positive- that is they create more energy than they consume. Local agencies also have lots to do with landscape and farming - areas that can take enormous amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in the soil. We can achieve this, in part, by implementing the Florida Native Landscapes program throughout all communities -residential and commercial. For those farmers not already doing it, we must implement Carbon farming (regenerative agriculture) throughout the region, which not only removes much more carbon from the atmosphere, it’s practice will improve soil fertility, reduce soil erosion, and make our food healthier by reducing chemical pesticides. Habitat restoration deals a double whammy to climate change. Restoring or enlarging mangrove forests, for example will provide a buffer against storm surge (resiliency) while at the same time taking enormous amounts of heat trapping gas out of the atmosphere (mangroves sequester about 10 times more carbon than do regular trees).
Local and regional pressure on state and federal government is something to be applied from Southwest Florida. For example, electrical generation accounts for more than 1/3 of our emissions and the states regulates utilities. We must lobby the state of Florida to mandate that utilities provide 100% of generated power from zero emission sources of electricity (solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, geothermal) energy by 2030. The federal government needs to know we at the local level endorse – and demand- a national price on carbon that returns all the revenues back to households in the form of monthly dividends. Carbon fee and dividend legislation can reduce emissions by 40% by 2030, meanwhile creating jobs in green energy, stimulating the economy and improving our health by reducing air pollution. Another imperative at the federal level is working for global cooperation, including at a minimum the Paris agreement. Without climate action on a global level, we are all doomed. Think about the federal government action reducing 40%, states eliminating about 1/3 of emissions, and in the next decade. These achievements, together with local action on buildings, landscapes, farming and habitat restoration, can put us on track to avoiding killer heat and rising seas in Florida.
This may all seems overwhelming, and that’s where local leadership comes in. Forward looking, informed and insightful mayors and commissioners can help us think rationally about our choices, and explain why radical action is the best choice. We can continue on the current path, and suffer the consequences of the killer heat and rising seas, or we can suck it up and take the bold action just described and have a chance to preserve life as we know it. For those of us who say the economy will suffer from all this bold action, enlightened leaders will help us see that doing nothing, or too little to mitigate climate change threatens the whole economy with permanent collapse.
The choice is clear to me. We need to adapt and mitigate. Let’s recognize that with resiliency and adaptation alone, the climate will continue to change. Without sufficient mitigation SW Florida will become unlivable from extreme heat and a rising seas. The regional compact, and the counties’ comprehensive plans for 2021, need to include a commitment to mitigation in sufficient scope and timing and to lobbying state and federal levels to do their part.